Rate Lock Advisory

Wednesday, April 21th

Wednesday’s bond market has opened in positive territory, continuing this week’s momentum. Stocks are showing gains also with the Dow up 115 points and the Nasdaq up 1 point. The bond market is currently up 4/32 (1.55%), which with strength late yesterday should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .250 of a discount point. If you saw an intraday improvement yesterday afternoon, you should see a smaller one in today’s early pricing.

4/32

Bonds

30 yr - 1.55%

115

Dow

33,937

1

NASDAQ

13,787

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Medium

Unknown

Treasury Auctions (5,7,10,20,30 year)

This morning has no relevant economic data set for release. We do have the 20-year Treasury Note auction to watch this afternoon. Results will be posted at 1:00 PM ET, making this an early afternoon event for rates. These sales don’t directly affect mortgage rates but can impact broader bond trading sentiment that indirectly can influence rates. A strong demand from investors could lead to bond gains and a minor improvement in mortgage pricing this afternoon.

Medium

Unknown

Weekly Unemployment Claims (every Thursday)

Tomorrow makes up for the light calendar thus far this week with three economic reports for the markets to digest. The first will be last week’s unemployment update at 8:30 AM ET. It is expected to show 600,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week, up from the previous week’s 576,000. Rising claims is a sign of employment sector weakness. Accordingly, the higher the number of initial filings, the better the news it is for mortgage rates.

Medium

Unknown

Existing Home Sales from National Assoc of Realtors

Next up is March's Existing Homes Sales numbers from the National Association of Realtors at 10:00 AM ET. This release gives us an indication of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand. It can influence mortgage pricing if it shows a sizable variance from forecasts. Ideally, the bond market would like to see a large decline in home resales because a softening housing sector makes broader economic growth more difficult. Analysts are expecting to see a small decline in sales between February and March. The larger the decline, the better the news it is for bonds and mortgage rates.

Low

Unknown

Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) from the Conference Board

Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) for March will also be posted at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow. This Conference Board index attempts to predict economic activity over the next three to six months. It is considered to be only a moderately important report, so at best we can expect to see a slight movement in rates as a result of this data. The report is expected to show a 0.6% rise from February's reading, indicating economic growth over the next several months. Favorable news for mortgage rates would be a weaker reading.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

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